How long until complete self-replication is possible, including motors and electrical components?
With motors and electrical components: maybe 2-3 years. With motors and electronic components: maybe 8-10 years. What are some technical hurdles still to be overcome? Not many really. We know how to do just about everything we want to do, and we’ve proved a lot of it experimentally. But there are only so many hours in a day… What will this accomplishment mean for the world of manufacturing? It’ll be a long time before the manufacturers of supertankers start to feel the chill. It’ll be a short time before the manufacturers of coat-hooks start to feel the chill. Everything else is somewhere in between… I think three big interesting areas are consumer electronics, domestic transport, and pharmaceuticals. Once we have electrical circuits cracked, it won’t be very long at all before people are making their own e-gadgets and then plugging in the chips and batteries. This won’t just affect manufacturers: if you make your own phone, why bother to connect it to a network and actually pay? P
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