How is this method accurate? My numbers say that Pioneer Middle School shouldnt even be involved in the boundary process?
Districtwide for the past 3 years, not including centers and charters, the School Boundaries Department projections have been, on average, less than 1 percent (.63%) of the District’s actual 20 th day of enrollment. This year, School Boundaries projections were less then a half of a percent (.3%) of the actual 20 th day enrollment. • For Pioneer Middle School, the 2009 projection was over projected by 14 students, less than 1 percent (.9%) of the actual 20 th day enrollment at Pioneer Middle School. • For the past 12 years, Pioneer Middle School has had an enrollment above 125.5% of its permanent capacity and is still anticipated to be above the adopted ILA Level of Service in the year 2011-12 and beyond. • Averaging the incoming 6 th grade at Pioneer for the last 3 years provides 485 students + 462 existing 6 th grade students + 496 existing 7 th grade students for an estimated simple cohort enrollment (not a projection) of 1,443 without applying any attrition for growth or decline in
