How good is behavioural economics when it comes to predicting outcomes?
I think it’s as good as traditional economics, which is not at all! What’s great about predictions is that everyone has one. And then the people who happened to be right feel very good. That’s what I mean about social science being so difficult. You just look at it and you have no idea about how to do any of the stuff. We hope we have enough data so that we could say, “instead of 50:50, my guess is 60:40.
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