how does the US DOE/EIA come out?
Forecasts are only of value if they are reasonably accurate. In that regard, I decided to look at an analysis I made in 2001, “Analysis of the IEO2001 Non-OPEC Supply Projections” In the document, I analyzed the U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration’s (US DOE/EIA) International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001) and compared their forecast to my forecast for selected non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (non-OPEC). The following update compares the accuracy of the US DOE/EIA’s forecasts with the accuracy of my own forecasts that were presented in that document five years ago and an analysis I made of North Sea oil written in 1999. Future North Sea Oil Production In the IEO2001, the US DOE/EIA stated the following concerning future North Sea oil production: In the IEO2001 forecast, North Sea production reaches a peak in 2006, at almost 6.6 million barrels/day (mb/d). Production from Norway, Western Europe’s largest producer, is expected to peak at almost 3.
