How does the decision desk come to a decision on the overall election outcome, i.e. who is going to form the next governmment?
Every election is about change – or the lack of change. If nothing changes, we know exactly what the results will be: the same as they were in the last election. So we look at the deviations from last time. And we ask if those deviations, or changes, are enough to affect the overall outcome. We know that in Nova Scotia, the Conservatives have to add just two seats to their total to form a majority government. So we’ll be watching to see if they’re holding the seats they have, and then see if they are picking up those extra two. If they can’t do it, we know they’re not going to form a majority government. We also know that in Nova Scotia no majority government has ever been elected with less than 39 per cent of the popular vote. It’s possible to form a majority with less than that, but knowing the history gives us a benchmark to watch for. Remember, a poll in a provincial election campaign might survey 500 people. By the time we make a call on election night we might have 1,500 votes in
