How does the Centre for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control (CIDPC) estimate national HIV incidence and HIV prevalence?
Surveillance data relate only to HIV positive individuals who seek testing or medical care and whose positive HIV test was reported to public health authorities. Therefore, these data do not represent the total number of people who become infected with HIV each year (incidence) or the total number of people living with HIV infection (prevalence). To take account of this, national HIV incidence and prevalence are estimated using direct and indirect methods. These methods use data from a wide variety of sources, such as provincial HIV testing databases, population-based surveys, targeted epidemiological studies, and census data. The direct method estimates incidence and prevalence using epidemiological studies among specific population groups. These estimates are then multiplied by the estimated population at risk. Sizes for estimated populations at risk are obtained through a variety of methods, including projected population estimates, population-based surveys, and census data. Two ind
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