How does NFLProPicker account for performance statistics at the beginning of the season when no “regular season” games have yet been played?
To begin, NFLProPicker does not apply any weight to statistics emanating from exhibition games — games for which the primary focus is to make roster decisions. Performance statistics for the first game of the current season are based on stats compiled in the last 7 games of the preceding season. Your next question may be, “why 7 games?” – there are 2 reasons: all the teams’ bye-weeks are completed by week 11 and therefore all 32 teams played every week up to end of the prior season (weeks 11 to 17) and can be evaluated on common ground from a statistical point of view, there are enough games per team (7 games) and enough overall (112 games) to draw meaningful statistical conclusions Of course, the problem is that things happen in the off season, principally personnel changes such as: player movements due to salary cap considerations draft picks and free agency pick-ups player trades and retirements changes in management and coaching staff To recognize these situations, NFLProPicker ap
