How does ICIMOD view the current dispute over the IPCC prediction of 2035?
About a year-and-a-half ago, I participated in a seminar where this figure was launched. And I said: “I would not bet a plate of Swiss chocolate that this figure is correct”. It has no solid basis, there are many factors at play. Take for instance the situation in northern Pakistan. Similarly there is more precipitation in the Tibetan plateau, probably because of climate change. This might mean more precipitation in the winter which might change the glacier, possibly making it advance. In the same report, the IPCC made another prediction. They said that the surface of the HKH glaciers would decrease from 500,000 square kilometres to 100,000 square kilometres. Now, our studies suggest that the actual surface of these glaciers is in fact between 108,000 to 112,000 square kilomoetres [not 500,000]. This is our current understanding. These numbers indicate the way in which some IPCC people seem to be working. Unfortunately, the debate on this figure is now politicising the larger issue. Wh
