How Does HIV/AIDS Change the Size, Structure and Composition of the South African Population?
Further analysis of the Metropolitan, 225 Doyle model (1999) revealed the following projections: In 5 years (From 1999): • The racial composition of the population remains almost unchanged with the Black population contributing over 90% to HIV/AIDS. • It is projected that Coloureds will show an increase of 39%, Whites an increase of 94% and Indians an increase of 95% thereby reducing the percentage contribution of Blacks to the disease. (Blacks still contributing 93%) • There will be 6% less toddlers under 4. • 3% fewer children under 14. • 9% more youth between the ages of 15 and 29. (Most susceptible to HIV/AIDS with a 20% prevalence in 2000 and 25% prevalence of HIV in 2005.) • 2% more 30 to 44 year olds. • 15% more adults (50 plus). In 10 years (From 1999): • The Black population continues to be in the majority representing 79% of total population. • HIV continues to increase in all population groups with Blacks now contributing 91%. • 11% fewer toddlers under 4. • 9% fewer childre
