How do we decide that the quality of this dynamical model is adequate for meaningful projections of future changes in hurricane activity?
We start by simulating the hurricane season over the Atlantic for each of the years between 1980 and 2006. In particular we count the number of hurricanes generated by the model, using the standard meteorological definition of a hurricane based on the maximum surface wind in the storm. We were impressed by the results for the year-to-year variation and the well-known upward trend over this time period (see figure 1 in the paper). The quality of this result is what encouraged us to proceed with the global warming study. It indicates to us that meaningful “macroscopic” rules governing storm genesis do emerge naturally from this model – that it must be handling the effects of changes in circulation (“shear”) and moist stability in a fairly realistic manner in order to simulation the year-to-year variability and the longer term trend with this level of realism. The confidence that anyone should place in our results should depend in large part on how impressed they are with the quality of t
Related Questions
- How do we decide that the quality of this dynamical model is adequate for meaningful projections of future changes in hurricane activity?
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