How did the exit pollsters explain the discrepancies in 2004?
In their evaluation report, they stated that the Within Precinct Error was “most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters” (page 3). They further state, “It is difficult to pinpoint precisely the reasons that, in general, Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters. There were certainly motivational factors that are impossible to quantify, but which led to Kerry voters being less likely than Bush voters to refuse to take the survey. In addition there are interactions between respondents and interviewers that can contribute to differential non-response rates” (page 4). The evaluation report lists several factors that were associated with differences in WPE, including interviewer distance from the polls; interviewer age and education; number of precincts at the polling place; and sampling rate at the polling place. It does not offer a master theory of the discrepancy. TIA: What about the fact that dis
