HOW CAN WE IMPROVE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSES OF MOISTURE TO IMPROVE QPF?
1) We have lots of room for improvement of the models and their accuracy in simulation atmospheric behavior. These things will keep us (I hope) employed indefinitely. We have lots of room for improvement of model resolution. This will come with more powerful computers. There is lots of room for improvement of initial conditions (which is where I sense you are coming from) BOTH in technique and in observational basis. Improvements (better forecasts) will be limited if we can’t get better obs, but the other things will each generate increments of improvement in forecast accuracy. Depending on where in the forecast you look, however, that increment will be different. If we can’t get better obs, then analysis and assimilation and model improvements will be limited by the initial error (though that error may grow more slowly). You may not think very much of our Eta Model QPF’s but we have come a LONG way since June of 1993. We’ve come this far because of progress in ALL of the above areas.
