How are the forecasts and trading signals made?
Adaptive Modeler calculates a new forecast every bar. The forecast is normally based on the Virtual Market price. This is the clearing price of the Virtual Market calculated using the volume weighted pricing mechanism that includes all agent orders. The forecast is therefore based on the buy and sell orders of a large number of agents. As explained elsewhere, the forecast can alternatively be based on the Best Agents Price. After every new forecast the Trading System determines if a new trading signal (long, short or cash) needs to be given based on the forecast, the last known security price and the Trading System parameters. A new trading signal will only be generated when the new suggested position differs from the last generated signal. For more details on how trading signals are being generated, see the Trading Signal Generator section in the Users Guide.
