How (and when) is the CPI market basket determined?
The CPI market basket is developed from detailed expenditure information provided by families and individuals on what they actually bought. For the current CPI, this information was collected from the Consumer Expenditure Survey over the 3 years 1993, 1994, and 1995. In each of these 3 years, about 7,000 families from around the country provided information on their spending habits in a series of quarterly interviews. To collect information on frequently purchased items, such as food and personal care products, another 5,000 families in each of the 3 years kept diaries listing everything they bought during a 2-week period. Altogether, about 36,000 individuals and families provided expenditure information for use in determining the importance, or weight, of the over 200 item categories in the CPI index structure. (from BLS web page) When will we run out of oil? The answer appears to be anybody’s guess since it depends a lot on forecasts of consumption patterns and also on your estimate
