How accurate is the storm surge data?
The SLOSH model is generally accurate within 20 percent. For example, if the model calculates a peak 10-foot storm surge for the hurricane, you can expect the observed peak to range from 8 to 12 feet. The model accounts for astronomical tides (which can add significantly to the water height) by specifying an initial tide level, but does not include rainfall amounts, riverflow, or wind-driven waves. However, this information is combined with the model results in the final analysis of at-risk areas. The point of a hurricane’s landfall is crucial to determining which areas will be inundated by the storm surge. Where the hurricane forecast track is inaccurate, SLOSH model results will be inaccurate. The SLOSH model, therefore, is best used for defining the potential maximum surge for a location. Visit the National Hurricane Preparedness Week Web site for more information on storm surge and the SLOSH model.
