How accurate is the EMI as a leading indicator of economic growth?
The survey data that comprise the EMI – the PMIs – have established a highly-regarded track record of accurately anticipating changes in economic conditions in countries for which significant historical data are available. Correlation analysis shows that the EMI is just as accurate an indicator of changes in economic conditions for emerging markets. A correlation of 0.860 shows that headline EMI data have a strong, positive relationship with official emerging market GDP. *The Q4 2005 EMI figure contains only November and December data.
