How accurate is pre-trial research at predicting what will happen at trial?
In our experience, pre-trial research activities are good predictors of the outcomes of the real trial. Jurors decide cases based on broad themes, and if the themes of the real trial are accurately represented in the pre-trial research, then similar results can be expected. For example, with telephone survey research in criminal cases, if the percentages voting guilty on the verdict questions exceed 70 percent, we have learned that chances for acquittal at trial are slim. Mock juries also have significant predictive value. For example, we conducted a mock trial in which all three mock juries hung, and in the real trial the jury hung. Trial consultants do not have crystal balls, but with well-designed, prescient pre-trial research, you can get a good idea of what is likely to happen at trial.
