How accurate are long-range weather forecasts?
Long range weather forecasts are based on mathematical models and prevalent weather patterns in the past. Obviously, the further into the future you go, the lower the degree of accuracy will be. That is because forecast models are partly based on the recent weather patterns. These patterns surely will change. If we try to guess what the weather will be in a certain area two months from now, the data necessary to create a forecast simply does not exist. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) creates general temperature and precipitation outlooks up to one year in advance. Their forecasts only deal with the above or below normal expected temps or precipitation, not what the weather will be in one location. Long range weather forecasts are only accurate to an extent and should not be taken too seriously, there is always room for something in the atmosphere to change. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.
