How accurate are 10 day weather forecasts?
10 days in advance is a little too far ahead to be all that accurate. Usually forecasts can be most accurate around 3 days in advance. You can check the likely hood of thunderstorms on Metcheck’s stormwatch page enter your postcode and the stormwatch link is down the left hand side menu. http://www.metcheck.com You need to be looking a CAPE and LI values. The larger the CAPE number and the smaller the LI number the more chance of storms. For instance a CAPE of 0j/Kg and an LI of 6 would mean no thunderstorms. A CAPE of 500j/Kg and an LI of -3 would indicate a risk of thunderstorms. I have looked at the Global Forcast System models for next week and at the moment there’s a very good chance of thunderstorms from the middle of next week onwards. The GFS forecasts change every few hours though but you can keep track of them here: http://www.datameteo.com/chart/mappe/gfswettercape.htm The more orange/red colour and low numbers the more chance of a thunderstorm. Blue and high numbers….litt
