Have the administrations enrollment projections recently proven accurate?
No. BOCES (the school district’s primary demographic consultant for enrollment projections) has substantially over-predicted enrollment for three years straight. In September, 2005, the Item erroneously reported the BOCES projections “held up” in light of fall, 2005 enrolled students, but the Item mistakenly reported pre-enrollment information provided to it by the administration. Pre-enrolled numbers proved higher than those who actually enrolled, as is typically the case because families often fail to advise the district when they move and when children enroll in private school. The projections have probably proven wrong because BOCES modified its standard prediction techniques in order to make “judgment” corrections, all of which favored increased enrollment predictions. In doing so, it relied on Essex County data. As we in Millburn intuitively understand, Newark does not have the same demographic patterns as Millburn. A New York demographer should not flippantly be accused of “just
