Given this and other new information, can one estimate the probability of damaging earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone?
Many people, including the press, quote probabilities of earthquakes that are nearly 25 years old. Scientists have learned a tremendous amount about central U.S. earthquakes since that time. One of the things they have learned is that coming up with probabilities is much more difficult than previously thought. If historical seismicity combined with the new information on recurrence of large earthquakes is used, scientists estimate a 25-40% chance of a magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquake in the next 50 years and about a 7-10% probability of a repeat of the 1811-1812 earthquakes in the same time period. However, it is VERY important to note that these estimates alone do not include information about WHERE the earthquakes might occur and therefore what shaking might affect any given location. More useful are the estimates of the likely amount of ground shaking that can be expected, contained in the National Seismic Hazard maps. The ground shaking estimated accounts for both the likely ra
