Given the Cassini flyby will take place during the next big meteor shower, the Perseids, what is the chance Cassini could similarly be hit by a meteor and then crash into Earth?
The Cassini mission planners were aware of the Perseids meteor shower when designing the mission trajectory years before launch. An analysis was conducted on the possibility of Cassini being hit by a meteoroid of any size, large or tiny, including a hit from a Perseids meteoroid. The analysis showed that the probability of a meteoroid hit that would also throw Cassini off course in just the right way to make it hit Earth was less than one in one million. For further detail refer to the 1997 Cassini Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (section 4.1.1.2) and the 1995 Cassini Environmental Impact Statement (section 4.1.5.2).
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