Given that the 144th golfer in the field at the first playoff event could theoretically win the FedExCup, is there a big enough advantage for the top golfers?
First, it’s important to differentiate between “could theoretically win” and “has a realistic chance to win.” In order for the 144th seed to overtake the first seed’s reset advantage, he’d have to win both of the first two events — and this is before taking into account what the first seed might do in those events. Keep in mind that it’s unlikely anyone outside the top 50 or so has won even a single event all year, so for a very low seed to win two in a row against the strongest fields in golf under some of the greatest pressure of the year is unlikely in the extreme. But even two in a row won’t suffice, because some other, higher-seeded players are going to be playing well in those events. It will probably take somewhere in the neighborhood of 112,000 to 115,000 points to win the FedExCup, based on the modeling we’ve done. So the 144th seed would actually need to win at least three times in four weeks, with a strong finish — probably no worse than top-10 — in the fourth event to ac
