For the playoffs, what is the difference between “projected wins” and “expected wins”?
The projected number of wins is the most likely number of wins given that the predicted series winner actually wins the series. The predicted winner is the team with a WIN of higher than 50%. The expected number of wins is the average number of wins no matter who wins the series. For example, if a team has a 25% chance of winning 0 games, 25% chance of winning 1 game, and 50% chance of winning 2 games, then the expected number of wins would be 0.25*0 + 0.25*1 + 0.5*2 or 1.25, which is rounded to 1.3. We report projected wins and losses in the main standings page in order to predict the series outcome (including games won), but report the expected wins and losses in the team page for those who are interested.
