For someone planning to sail south along the California – Mexico coast, is it possible to get a forecast for El Niño for next winter?
The El Niño is not a regular winter climatic event. It occurs once every 2-7 years and each event is different from the previous in terms of intensity and duration. After a major El Niño event, another natural event called La Nina sometimes follows. La Nina also effects the winter season along the coast. In terms of what will happen next winter, long range forecasts are starting to indicate the possibility of a weak La Nina event. However, an accurate forecast this far in advance has the same accuracy as flipping a coin.
