ECONOMIC MODELING RESULTS 1. What is the range of model estimates of the benefits of global climate change policies?
• For a doubling of GHG concentrations, estimates of the benefits of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions vary between $55 billion to $140 billion, or approximately 0.5 to 2% of U.S. GDP • The impact would be much greater for developing countries, from 2 to 9% of GDP • Several factors affect the potential magnitude of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation; 1. The potential scale and timing of damages avoided 2. Assumptions about adaptation 3. Damage costs are uncertain and also involve a chance of catastrophe 4. Irreversibility of greenhouse emissions 5. Policies that reduce greenhouse gases can yield ancillary benefits in terms of local environmental quality improvement. Top 2. What is the range of model estimates of the costs of global climate change policies? Economic models give a range of cost estimates due to the number of key variables that drive results. For the U.S. to meet an emission reduction goal similar to the Kyoto Protocol: • CGE or top-down models generally give
