Doesn E/Ms own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?
That table (on page 2 of the national methods statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections. [1/6/07: TIA adjures us to “[r]ead the Edison – Mitofsky notes at the bottom of this 12:22am NEP screen shot,” but the screenshot isn’t visible. If TIA has documentary evidence that the standard errors reported in the evaluation report (pp. 21-22) are faked, that would certainly be interesting.
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