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Does the yield curve signal recession?

April 26, 2017curve recession signal yield

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Does the yield curve signal recession?

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) Economic Commentary, 2006, issue Apr 15 Abstract: Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities—a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be. Keywords: Recessions; Economic forecasting; Interest rates (search for similar items in EconPapers) Date: 2006 View citations in EconPapers Track citatations by RSS feed Downloads: (external link) http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/commentary/2006/0415.pdf (application/pdf) Related works: This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.