Does the USGS or Caltech predict earthquakes?
No. Neither the USGS or CalTech or scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake (Parkfield was not a major earthquake). Nor do they know how or expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However, based on scientific data scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major earthquake ocuring in the SF Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California. • Q: Are probabilities the same as prediction? A: No. Probabilities are estimated from the rate of aftershocks and these are sometimes confused with the prediction of a particular event. • Q: What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Bay Area? A: Within the next 30 years the probability is 67% that an earthquake measuring M>6.7 will occur in the Bay Area. The probability in Southern California is 60%. Page Index Safety: • Q: Is it true that there is nothing I can do with regards to earthquakes? A: NOT TRUE. Earthquakes can be terrifying, and while no one can control earthquakes, each
