Does the term structure predict real economic activity in Japan?
Author InfoChikashi Tsuji Abstract It has been empirically shown in the USA that a positive slope of the yield curve is associated with a future increase in real economic activity. However, the present study’s empirical examination reveals that the term structure in Japan has almost no predictive power for real economic changes, whereas it does in Canada and the USA. Further, the additional investigation, which exploits spectral analysis, clarifies that the yield-curve’s slope and real economic growth in the USA and Canada have similar cyclical components. However, the term structure in Japan exhibits few business cycle components, and this may account for the lack of predictive power. Download InfoTo download: If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site
