Does the study of climate-health linkages lead directly to the use of climate forecasts in public health?
The study of climate-health linkages by itself does not establish the utility of climate forecasts in public health. The study of climate-health linkages seeks to determine the effects of climatic factors on human health. For example, “if rainfall is intense every day for a week”, “then mudslides are very likely in parts of Rio de Janeiro”. These “if – then” relationships are necessary for the scientific use of climate forecasts in public health. The degree of uncertainty of these impacts can vary. Even if the possible impacts are well known, making decisions on the use of climate forecasts must take into account the uncertainty of future climate. The results are not certain even in the case of seasonal climate forecasts. Seasonal forecasts project only three months or six months ahead. The structure of climate forecasts also imposes certain limitations. See question 2.
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- Does the study of climate-health linkages lead directly to the use of climate forecasts in public health?
