Does the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggest that life is common in the universe?
It is sometimes assumed that the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth suggests that life is common in the Universe. Here we critically examine the assumptions inherent in this if-life-evolved-rapidly-life-must-be-common argument. We use the observational constraints on the rapidity of biogenesis on Earth to infer the probability of biogenesis on terrestrial planets with the same unknown probability of biogenesis as the Earth. We find that on such planets, older than approximately 1 Gyr, the probability of biogenesis is > 13% at the 95% confidence level. This quantifies an important term in the Drake Equation but does not necessarily mean that life is common in the Universe.
Related Questions
- It seems clear that Bujolds universe assumes that although complex life is pretty common in the universe--native ecologies on Barrayar and Sergyar, for example--intelligent life is quite rare. Why?
- Do similar laws of physics throughout the Universe imply that all life must be like life on Earth?
- How common is life in the Universe?
