Does the current stock market rally make it harder to be so bearish?
It doesn’t change my views, because we have already had about six bear market rallies in the past year. The market has been a lousy predictor. People used to say that the stock market predicted 12 out of the last nine recessions. This time, it predicted six out of the last zero economic recoveries. Every time there was a rally, and then the macro[economic] news, the earning news, the financial news was worse, and the market touched a new low. So you don’t think we have reached the bottom? Of course, as we get lower and lower, we’re going to be closer to the bottom. But the way to think about the markets is for us to think about the real economy. And … I see a real economy which is still in severe recession. The consensus calls for U.S. economic growth to resume in the second half at about a 2-per-cent annual clip. Is it safe to assume that you don’t agree? I expect the recession to continue all the way through the end of this year. The rate of economic contraction is going to slow do
