Does that mean health and education budgets will be ring-fenced and protected from any cuts?
No. Ministers are drawing a careful distinction between protecting the health budget and the education budget, and protecting spending on hospitals and schools. The emphasis is on maintaining front-line services, rather than keeping those department’s budgets intact in their entirety. Doing so would mean much deeper cuts elsewhere in the budget. Are we likely to see a political row when the figures are revealed? Yes – and it has already started. The Welsh Conservatives have made a clear pledge that they would protect the £6bn plus health budget in its entirety, and give it inflation linked increases every year. It is an eye-catching promise, designed to appeal to many voters for whom health is a key issue. However, in order to balance the budget, this would mean severe cuts elsewhere in government expenditure. So far the Tories have refused to spell out where those cuts would come. The other three parties, Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats will not match the pledge, but the
