Does reservoir host mortality enhance transmission of West Nile virus?
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Since its 1999 emergence in New York City, West Nile virus (WNV) has become the most important and widespread cause of mosquito-transmitted disease in North America. Its sweeping spread from the Atlantic to the Pacific coast was accompanied by widespread mortality among wild birds, especially corvids. Only sporadic avian mortality had previously been associated with this infection in the Old World. Here, we examine the possibility that reservoir host mortality may intensify transmission, both by concentrating vector mosquitoes on remaining hosts and by preventing the accumulation of “herd immunity”. RESULTS: Inspection of the Ross-Macdonald expression of the basic reproductive number (R0) suggests that this quantity may increase with reservoir host mortality. Computer simulation confirms this finding and indicates that the level of virulence is positively associated with the numbers of infectious mosquitoes by the end of the epizootic. The presence of reservoir in
