Does lowering the price to capture market share work in the grain markets?
Exports tend to have a “be all” persona in the grain sector. Seldom do you see projections, especially long-term projections, of the financial health of the grain sector that are not linked directly to export prospects – often of the optimistic kind. The expressed message: Exports are the key. The subliminal message: Exports will be increasing real soon now. But is the hype the reality? Well, as we saw in two recent columns, exports of the three major crops have been summarily unimpressive over the last two decades. So, in a world of “What have you done for me lately,” crop exports would have to hang their collective heads. Ok, so exports have been flat-to-declining for U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans. Maybe world exports are flat or declining too, allowing the U.S. to maintain or even increase our share of world exports. That is possible, I suppose. In this column we will specifically look at the export share question for corn. It is important to mention at the outset that the decline i
