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Does globalisation pacify international relations?

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10 Posted

Does globalisation pacify international relations?

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Denny Roy

It can either pacify or destabilize.  International trade and investment might create incentives to avoid war–if people are making money, they often don’t want anything to mess up a profitable arrangement.  On the other hand, the greater movement of foreign ideas, culture and lifestyle might make some communities feel threatened, possibly causing them to react violently in an attempt to stem what they see as a dangerous tide.  The groups that are economically left behind when others around them are benefiting disproportionately from globalization might become unhappy as well. 

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Using a large dataset of military conflicts, trade created by regional trade agreements is shown to be pacifying, but greater overall openness has the opposite effect. Logically, this means that bilateral trade pacifies bilateral relations, but raises the chance of conflict with third countries.

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