Does climate policy development require perfect information and certainty?
No. Rarely, if ever, do public or private sector policy decisions have the luxury of or need for perfect information. To guard against significant uncertainties, data limitations, or policy implementation risk, participants develop a diversified portfolio of actions to reach goals and objectives. They may also employ scenario and sensitivity analysis and other mathematical techniques to address imperfect information, much as businesses use the same techniques to plan in an uncertain market environment. Science advisory bodies do not recommend postponing preventive actions merely because of uncertainty or incomplete information. For instance, Article 3 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change states: “Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective.
