Does Buying History Really Repeat Itself?
In practice, those popular ‘recommendation engines’ work something like this: Consumer A made a specific purchase or showed particular consumer trend [observation] Consumer A therefore probably likes these types of products or services [once-removed assumption] Consumer A therefore will probably want these types of products or services in the future [twice-removed assumption] Consumer A therefore will probably spend money on similar products and services [third-removed assumption] Is this reasoning really the best predictor of future consumer behavior? The answer is no. People are creatures of habit in many respects, but this does not imply that they are unaware of such behavior or that their repetition is a reliable indicator. Repetition (e.g. in the form brand-loyalty) simply reflects that people did not receive sufficiently compelling information that causes a consumer to revise their prior behavioral beliefs. By contrast, the ‘consumer behavior as habit’ notion assumes that routine
