Does BLS project future labor shortages or surpluses?
No. Attempts by some to ascribe shortages or surpluses to our projections are based on an incorrect comparison of the total employment and total labor force projections, two separate and fundamentally different measures. The total employment projection is a count of jobs and the labor force projection is a count of individuals. Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see “An overview of BLS projections to 2016,” James C. Franklin, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see “Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context,” Michael W. Horrigan, February
