Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too?
Yes and No. The vast majority of Atlantic activity takes place during August-September-October, the climatological peak months of the hurricane season. The overall number of named storms (hurricanes) occurring in June and July (JJ) correlates at an insignificant r = +0.13 (+0.02) versus the whole season activity. In fact, there is a slight negative relationship between early season storms (hurricanes) versus late season – August through November – r = -0.28 (-0.35). Thus, the overall early season activity, be it very active or quite calm, has little bearing on the season as a whole. These correlations are based on the years 1944-1994. However, as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, tota
No. The number of named storms (hurricanes) occurring in June and July correlates at an insignificant r = +0.13 (+0.02) versus the whole season activity. Actually, there is a slight _negative_ association of early season storms (hurricanes) versus late season – August through November – r = -0.28 (-0.35). Thus, early season activity, be it very active or quite calm, has little bearing on the season as a whole. These correlations are based on the years 1944-1994.
