Do the Social Security Projections Underestimate Future Longevity?
If it weren’t for the reduction in mortality rates since the beginning of the century, one-quarter of all Americans alive today would already be dead; another quarter would never have been born (since their parents wouldn’t have been around). One of the most far-reaching consequences of this revolution—the explosion in the number of elderly—still lies largely in the future. Declining mortality is not the only cause of the “age wave”—or the accompanying growth in Social Security costs. But assumptions about future reductions in mortality have a large impact on Social Security projections, and many demographers believe that the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) assumptions are too conservative. In its official “inter- mediate” scenario, SSA projects that mortality in the next century will decline at just half of its long-term historical rate. It thus assumes, at a time of stunning medical advances, that U.S. life expectancy 50 years from now will be no higher than Japanese life expe
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- Do the Social Security Projections Underestimate Future Longevity?
