Do the pilot test results suggest that the exhaustion rate accurately reflects reemployment rates?
Findings: Before we developed a reemployment rate to measure facilitation of reemployment, we used the UI benefit exhaustion rate as a readily available proxy. Because most claimants leave benefit status to take a job, we assumed that the complement of the exhaustion rate (one minus the exhaustion rate) would reasonably represent reemployment. Having actual data on reemployment rates for Q+1 and Q+2 gave us the ability finally to test the validity of that assumption. We computed the relevant Q+1 and Q+2 benefit exhaustion rates for the pilot states and examined their relationship to reemployment rates. Results: • Exhaustion rates are not a good proxy for Q+1 reemployment rates. When we included Q+1 exhaustion rates as an explanatory variable in the equation that models movements in the Q+1 reemployment rates, they were not statistically significant. Our primary interest is in the Q+1 period, because that is when we expect UI system and State Workforce Agency interventions to occur and
