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Do the Measurements of Financial Market Inflation Expectations Yield Relevant Macroeconomic Information?

April 26, 2017expectations financial inflation macroeconomic market measurements relevant yield

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Do the Measurements of Financial Market Inflation Expectations Yield Relevant Macroeconomic Information?

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Martin Fukac Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2005, vol. 55, issue 7-8, pages 344-362 Abstract: Monthly data concerning the inflation expectations of financial analysts in the Czech Republic exhibit a tendency for bias and ineffectiveness. This paper analyses, from a macroeconomic perspective, whether the surveyed data include any relevant macroeconomic information, specifically, whether the surveyed expectations correspond to market expectations considered in macroeconomic analysis and models. Using a methodology based on a simple Fisher rule, it is found that the difference between the surveyed and market inflation expectations is not statistically significant. From this perspective, it is concluded the surveyed inflation expectations bear economically relevant information. Keywords: market inflation expectations; surveyed inflation expectations; Fisher rule (search for similar items in EconPapers) JEL-codes: C52 E43 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers