Do the indicators mean that pupil will achieve the predicted grades?
The indicators are not precise: they indicate the outcomes expected for students with a particular CAT score making average progress in a typical secondary school. They come with a margin of error which reflects the differences in progress that may be made by different pupils in different schools or circumstances. The subject grade indicators come with a margin of error of at least plus or minus one grade, as illustrated through the progress graphs and tables. For example a student may have an indicated outcome of grade D in a particular GCSE subject, but this may for example reflect a 5% chance of a grade A, 10% chance of a B, 20% chance of a C, 30% chance of a D, 20% chance of an E, 10% chance of an F and 5% chance of a G or below. The ‘Progress tables’ or ‘chances graphs’ show the indicators are a good starting point for considering targets but should only be considered in the context of the associated confidence bands. Further details on interpreting the indicators are given in “Ge
