Do similar issues arise over climate projections?
Yes. If modellers are asked for detailed forecasts about what will happen, say, in south-east England in 2060, some feel that it’s their job to provide the best available information. They then report whatever today’s biggest computers spit out, even if they know those results are not robust. Suppose different models give simulations for precipitation in 2060, ranging from 20 per cent less rainfall to 40 per cent more rainfall. The average is a 10 per cent increase, but is that value of any use to decision-makers? We don’t know how to turn those numbers into a trustworthy probability forecast. Maybe we should just accept we don’t know the details. Next year, the UK Climate Impacts Programme [largely funded by the British government] will unveil a “weather generator” that will allow corporations or government agencies to print out hourly weather patterns for beyond 2060, with a spatial resolution of 5 kilometres. Understandably, many users think they can use this information to work out
