Do seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home?
To determine whether seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home. We followed respondents for 5 years from the date of the first interview fielded in 1993. Our primary dependent variable was whether respondents moved to a nursing home within 5 years of baseline; self-assessed probability of moving to a nursing home within 5 years, also assessed at baseline, was the primary explanatory variable. Low rates of private long-term care insurance are not plausibly a result of seniors underestimating their personal risk of moving to a nursing home; such an assumption is inherent in many strategies to plan for the future long-term care needs of the baby boom generation.
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home. Data Sources. We used longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) database. AHEAD is a nationally representative survey (n=8,203) of community dwellers aged 70+ years and their spouses. STUDY DESIGN: We followed respondents for 5 years from the date of the first interview fielded in 1993. Our primary dependent variable was whether respondents moved to a nursing home within 5 years of baseline; self-assessed probability of moving to a nursing home within 5 years, also assessed at baseline, was the primary explanatory variable. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found that seniors who believed they were more likely to move to a nursing home within 5 years were indeed more likely to do so, and that most elders overestimated their likelihood of moving to a nursing home. CONCLUSIONS: Low rates of private long-term care insurance are not plausibly a result of seniors underesti
To determine whether seniors understand their risk of moving to a nursing home. Data Sources. We used longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) database. AHEAD is a nationally representative survey (n=8,203) of community dwellers aged 70+ years and their spouses.
How to best provide long-term care services for the aging U.S. population is one of the most difficult public policy challenges of the twenty-first century (Feder, Komisar, and Niefeld 2000). Nursing home care is a subset of long-term care, (1) but one that receives a great deal of policy attention because of the public expenditure of funds via Medicaid after “spend-down” (Taylor, Sloan, and Norton 1999). Individuals are responsible for financing nursing home care until virtually all financial assets have been exhausted through spend down. The likelihood of spending some time in a nursing home is relatively high (around 40 percent of 65 year olds spend some time in a nursing home prior to death) (Liu 1994; Murtaugh et al. 1997), so elderly individuals and their families face potentially catastrophic financial outlays given that annual nursing home costs range from $40,000-$100,000 per year (Moody 2002). Nursing home expenditures are projected to be $180 billion in 2005 (Burner and Wald
How to best provide long-term care services for the aging U.S. population is one of the most difficult public policy challenges of the twenty-first century (Feder, Komisar, and Niefeld 2000). Nursing home care is a subset of long-term care, (1) but one that receives a great deal of policy attention because of the public expenditure of funds via Medicaid after “spend-down” (Taylor, Sloan, and Norton 1999). Individuals are responsible for financing nursing home care until virtually all financial assets have been exhausted through spend down. The likelihood of spending some time in a nursing home is relatively high (around 40 percent of 65 year olds spend some time in a nursing home prior to death) (Liu 1994; Murtaugh et al. 1997), so elderly individuals and their families face potentially catastrophic financial outlays given that annual nursing home costs range from $40,000-$100,000 per year (Moody 2002). Nursing home expenditures are projected to be $180 billion in 2005 (Burner and Wald
