Do jobs rule presidents fates?
NEW YORK – This country’s jobless rate could very well determine who will be heading to the White House next January. There’s an intriguing theory with some historical backing that President Bush will be re-elected, but only as long as the nation’s unemployment rate averages lower than 5.6 percent in August, September and October. If the rate rises to 5.6 percent or higher? Then, so the theory goes, Dubya will lose the Nov. 2 election and will soon be out looking for work. This theory is the brainchild of John Challenger, a prominent employment consultant and observer of America’s job market. With some notable exceptions, in 10 of the last 14 elections (or 71 percent of the time), the incumbent president was re-elected when unemployment averaged less than 5.6 percent in the three months leading up to the election. Most Americans do not pay much attention to gross domestic product growth, the strength of the dollar, inflation or other economic indicators, said Challenger, CEO of Chicago
