Do IPCC Temperature Forecasts Have Skill?
Posted to Author: Pielke Jr., R. | Climate Change | Prediction and Forecasting | Scientific Assessments [UPDATE] Roger Pielke, Sr. tells us that we are barking up the wrong tree looking at surface temperatures anyway. He says that the real action is in looking at oceanic heat content, for which predictions have far less variability over short terms than do surface temperatures. And he says that observations of accumulated heat content over the past 4 years “are not even close” to the model predictions. For the details, please see for your self at his site.] “Skill” is a technical term in the forecast verification literature that means the ability to beat a nave baseline when making forecasts. If your forecasting methodology cant beat some simple heuristic, then it will likely be of little use. What are examples of such nave baselines? In weather forecasting historical climatology is often used. So if the average temperature in Boulder for May 20 is 75 degrees, and my prediction is for
