Do High School Dropouts Realize Large Payoffs from the GED?
The numbers of people who receive GEDs each year increased by approximately 200% between 1967 and 1998. Of the 500,000 people currently receiving GEDs each year, 200,000 are under the age of 20, and 50,000 are 16-17 years old (Chaplin 1999). At first glance, the payoff for getting a GED instead of staying in school to earn a high school degree seems large. For example, Tyler, Murnane, and Willett (1998) report that the earnings of young, white males increase significantly with GED certification. However, these benefits may reflect only a short-term gain. For example, a salary increase of over $1,000 in 1 year may seem substantial; however, one needs to consider the base salary to which the raise has been added and the potential for continuing substantial raises over the subsequent years of employment. Most studies show that individuals earning a GED instead of a high school diploma earn substantially lower earnings long term (Chaplin 1999). Chaplin (1999) suggests that some GED policie
